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Market timing is a bad idea, but you can “beat the market.”

If you are 55+ years old and nearing or in #retirement

With the market a blood bath 🔻 🤮 again for this week, I thought it a good time to poke Wall St in the eye by addressing one of the biggest reasons I have seen people lose money.

Unquestionably WORSE: The TIME⌛ AND PEACE OF MIND 😟 people lose.

The reason? TIMING THE MARKET (and why this is always a bad idea.)

The solution: You can actually “beat the market” in 2 distinct ways (mathematical and the feels.).

I have three people currently considering coming aboard my practice.

1️⃣ A great guy managing his own money. “I buy and hold the S&P500, because the market always comes back.” After a little trust was built, he admitted “I currently am in cash, I usually work on gut feeling.”

2️⃣ A couple with a big Wall St firm that said “we’re tired of losing but want to make back some losses before we move.”

3️⃣ A couple who sold their house and turned $500,000 over to a Wall St firm because a friend who “has done very well” gave them a referral…(more on this, which is a timing issue.

Three points on market timing.

1️⃣ It is almost impossible. First you have to be right. Then you have to be right all the time. Just because you successfully buy high, you then have to know when to sell, then when to buy ad infinitum. Consider that, according to Barron’s JUST 7% of professionally managed funds have “beaten the market” in the last decade. These are “experts” who wake up every day, with all the most expensive research and insider knowledge, and they fail 93% of the time.

2️⃣ Its a no win scenario. Let’s say you time it right. “I want to wait till the market comes back”. If you are right and the market rebounds, but then drops (a “bull trap”) you lose everything you just made back. You also lose time. And was it a lot of stress free “fun” waiting for the market to come back? If you are wrong and the market keeps tanking 🔻 how long are you going to wait for it to come back? Consider: The S&P 500 took ❗ 12 YEARS ❗ to “come back” from the peak of the 2002 tech bubble. Do you want to put your plans off 12 years?

3️⃣ Its not worth it. Why would you put your plans, your peace of mind, your time with your family, and your money at risk when you don’t have to? If it were a matter of “sit in cash” and “buy and hold” I get it…maybe there is an argument there. But with #investments that limit or eliminate loss, but can still make double digit returns if the market rebounds available, there is no reason to try and “time the market.”

Below is an example of 2 ways to “beat the market….”

1️⃣  The first way is mathematical.  I was the first DIY investor I know.  I started by buying a single stock (TRMB if you want to know) using paper route money through my great-grandmother when I was 12.  Since then I have day traded, bought and sold options, traded futures, done the “10 stock portfolio”, 60/40, read every blog (I was a Boglehead) and mirrored Warren Buffet.   Then I started managing client’s money using one simple principle.  Reduce unnecessary risk without giving up the reward.  By using these institutionally available investments I started to notice my clients were way outperforming my personally money.  Since I have started doing for myself what I do for my clients I have a far better ROI and lost far less sleep over money.

2️⃣  The REAL way you beat the market is this.

INVEST SO THAT IT DOESN’T MATTER WHAT THE MARKET DOES.

INVEST SO THAT YOUR PEACE OF MIND HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH “THE MARKET COMING BACK”

 

There are investments that beat inflation, and a down market.

High #inflation got your #invesments down? If you are near retirement you know this pain well. Even now, some younger investors (who have known nothing but an up-trending market their whole lives 📈 )are starting to realize its not all fun and games.

 

BUY THE FAANG STOCKS AND HODL shouts the millennial! 🎢

MY BOND FUND WAS SUPPOSED TO PROTECT ME shouts the almost-retiree! 🤯

 

There is a way to beat inflation and a schizophrenic market.

 

At its most recent meeting the Fed signaled it expects inflation to persist. In my view the American investor wants the pain of the inflation bubble over so bad it has self medicated with that most powerful of drugs.

 

Hope.

 

After pumping 2-3 trillion into the economy I am surprised that anyone is surprised that inflation will persist. With inflation “only” up 3-4% year over year, people have also forgotten that is +3% over the already +20% from previous years.

 

So really, the self talk of “the market always comes back” should be rephrased “I hope the market always comes back.” Will it? Over a long enough period of time…sure.

 

The question isn’t if the market will come back. The question is, especially for those nearing and in #retirement, how long? Moreover, how does making those retirement plans or distributions feel with a down market also pulling money from that account rather quickly (and ceaselessly).

 

How mcuh confidence do you have that you won’t have to spend less, trade off that trip to see your daughter’s soccer game, or put off that trip with your grand kids to Disney Land (right when they’re the best age for that)?

 

For wealth accumulators and HENRYs (high earners not rich yet) and the investing public generally, how much farther away is that vacation, vacation house, or being able to reduce your hours to spend time with your family?

 

As I tell all my clients “hope is not a #financialplan.” I have stared at an investment account and hoped as hard as anyone has hoped before, and it didn’t turn the market green.

 

So what do we do? All good #financialplans do two things (okay, three things).

 

1️⃣ Grow your #investments when the sun shines 📈

2️⃣ Protect your #investments when it starts to rain 📉

3️⃣ Give you peace of mind that no matter what happens, you’ll be ok.

 

Ironically, its the #inflation and market volatility that actually makes this possible.

 

There are investments that actually get much better when #inflation is up and the markets are a roller coaster (doesn’t matter, up or down, its the volatility that makes them better.)

 

Investments that most off the shelf DIY investors, typical 401ks, and standard Wall St investment firms don’t use (or don’t have access to) have much better terms during these times.

 

This is because those investments use options as a hedge against a down market and a leverage tool with a good market.

 

For instance, I just had a client and we needed to create #passiveincome.

 

I was able to structure an investment that had the following.

 

1️⃣Doesn’t lose a penny unless the S&P500 is down over 40% at the end of 5 years (very little chance of this.)

2️⃣Pays him 8.45% interest on his money.

 

I have another set or clients within 2 years of #retirement.  I put them in an investment that

 

1️⃣Is guaranteed never to lose.

2️⃣Can make up to 10% if the market is good.

 

 

My favorite thing to do in my practice is the unexpected.  Most clients at some point utter “I bet you are like everyone else.”  To be honest, I used to have imposter’s syndrome and quietly agreed with them.

 

By using investments that remove unnecessary risk without giving up the reward it is in times like these that these strategies have really paid off, and I have the happiest clients in the world.