Market timing is a bad idea, but you can “beat the market.”

If you are 55+ years old and nearing or in #retirement

With the market a blood bath 🔻 🤮 again for this week, I thought it a good time to poke Wall St in the eye by addressing one of the biggest reasons I have seen people lose money.

Unquestionably WORSE: The TIME⌛ AND PEACE OF MIND 😟 people lose.

The reason? TIMING THE MARKET (and why this is always a bad idea.)

The solution: You can actually “beat the market” in 2 distinct ways (mathematical and the feels.).

I have three people currently considering coming aboard my practice.

1️⃣ A great guy managing his own money. “I buy and hold the S&P500, because the market always comes back.” After a little trust was built, he admitted “I currently am in cash, I usually work on gut feeling.”

2️⃣ A couple with a big Wall St firm that said “we’re tired of losing but want to make back some losses before we move.”

3️⃣ A couple who sold their house and turned $500,000 over to a Wall St firm because a friend who “has done very well” gave them a referral…(more on this, which is a timing issue.

Three points on market timing.

1️⃣ It is almost impossible. First you have to be right. Then you have to be right all the time. Just because you successfully buy high, you then have to know when to sell, then when to buy ad infinitum. Consider that, according to Barron’s JUST 7% of professionally managed funds have “beaten the market” in the last decade. These are “experts” who wake up every day, with all the most expensive research and insider knowledge, and they fail 93% of the time.

2️⃣ Its a no win scenario. Let’s say you time it right. “I want to wait till the market comes back”. If you are right and the market rebounds, but then drops (a “bull trap”) you lose everything you just made back. You also lose time. And was it a lot of stress free “fun” waiting for the market to come back? If you are wrong and the market keeps tanking 🔻 how long are you going to wait for it to come back? Consider: The S&P 500 took ❗ 12 YEARS ❗ to “come back” from the peak of the 2002 tech bubble. Do you want to put your plans off 12 years?

3️⃣ Its not worth it. Why would you put your plans, your peace of mind, your time with your family, and your money at risk when you don’t have to? If it were a matter of “sit in cash” and “buy and hold” I get it…maybe there is an argument there. But with #investments that limit or eliminate loss, but can still make double digit returns if the market rebounds available, there is no reason to try and “time the market.”

Below is an example of 2 ways to “beat the market….”

1️⃣  The first way is mathematical.  I was the first DIY investor I know.  I started by buying a single stock (TRMB if you want to know) using paper route money through my great-grandmother when I was 12.  Since then I have day traded, bought and sold options, traded futures, done the “10 stock portfolio”, 60/40, read every blog (I was a Boglehead) and mirrored Warren Buffet.   Then I started managing client’s money using one simple principle.  Reduce unnecessary risk without giving up the reward.  By using these institutionally available investments I started to notice my clients were way outperforming my personally money.  Since I have started doing for myself what I do for my clients I have a far better ROI and lost far less sleep over money.

2️⃣  The REAL way you beat the market is this.

INVEST SO THAT IT DOESN’T MATTER WHAT THE MARKET DOES.

INVEST SO THAT YOUR PEACE OF MIND HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH “THE MARKET COMING BACK”